DYNAMIC MODELING OF DISEASES AND PESTS

Models help us understand the nonlinear dynamics of real-world processes by using the computer to mimic the actual forces that result in a system's behavior. The growing complexity of human social systems, from individual behavior to that of entire populations, makes us increasingly vulnerable to diseases and pests. The ecology of the disease agents and the pests when considered in this social context only adds to the complexity. The feedbacks, lags in the effects of our preventive actions, and the randomness in the environment make understanding of these vulnerabilities seem insurmountable. The amount and pace of modern travel provides virus and pest alike with the means to quickly find new hosts in untouched human populations and the ecosystems.